Wednesday, October 15, 2008

HURRICANE OMAR ADVISORY NUMBER 9



NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008


1100 AM AST WED OCT 15 2008




...OMAR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO LASH ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO...




A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE


ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.




A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...


SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN


ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.




A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED


WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO


PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.




A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND


MONTSERRAT.




A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE


EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.




A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR


PUERTO RICO.




A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE


WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.




A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.




FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE


INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED


BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.




AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED


BY SATELLITE AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 15.2


NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES...380 KM...SOUTHWEST


OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN


JUAN PUERTO RICO.




OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS


MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD


SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK...OMAR IS FORECAST TO


MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY


THURSDAY.




MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER


GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON


SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24


HOURS...AND OMAR SHOULD BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT


REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...


ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.




HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM


THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115


MILES...185 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42059 LOCATED JUST


NORTHWEST OF THE EYE OF OMAR REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF


64 MPH...104 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST TO 78 MPH...126 KM/HR.




THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.




OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES


OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF


12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM


AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN AND


NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA AND THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL


RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20


INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN


LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH


FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.




COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE


LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE


EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION...


OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST-


AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE


LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE


TO COASTAL STRUCTURES.




REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.2 N...67.2 W. MOVEMENT


TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.


MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.




AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE


CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500


PM AST.




$$


FORECASTER STEWART

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5



NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008


1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008




SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO


BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY


WITH SOME TOPS TO -86C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED


IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS LESS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE


INITIAL ADVISORY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT


SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...PLUS


SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE


NORTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 1036Z THIS MORNING. THUS...TROPICAL


DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR.




THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/02. OMAR HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH


TO SOUTHEASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGN OF


CHANGING THAT MOTION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE


INDICATES THAT A BROAD DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL


AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY


PICK UP OMAR AND NUDGE IT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...


AND THEN ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. THE LATEST


TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS A PIECE OF


SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG 70W LONGITUDE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING DUE SOUTH.


NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CROSS-WISE...BUT THERE ARE


SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND JUST HOW SOON OMAR


GETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST


TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK


...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT NOT AS FAR


EAST OR AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.




RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION


SUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING.


IN ADDITION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE


THAT HAS BEEN DISRUPTING INFLOW INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS


WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVE


FORCING TO OCCUR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW


PATTERN AND A FORECAST OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS


THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF


STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY FOR THE


NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD


OF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER


THAN 20 KT...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAY 2


AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE


PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF


MODELS.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS




INITIAL 14/1500Z 14.0N 69.0W 35 KT


12HR VT 15/0000Z 14.7N 68.3W 45 KT


24HR VT 15/1200Z 15.8N 67.3W 55 KT


36HR VT 16/0000Z 17.3N 65.6W 60 KT


48HR VT 16/1200Z 19.1N 63.6W 65 KT


72HR VT 17/1200Z 23.8N 60.0W 65 KT


96HR VT 18/1200Z 28.0N 58.0W 65 KT


120HR VT 19/1200Z 33.0N 55.0W 65 KT




$$


FORECASTER STEWART

Monday, October 13, 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK



NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008


 

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


 

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

DEPRESSION NANA...LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE

ISLANDS AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCATED

ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.


 

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS

NICARAGUA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...

AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR

FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE

THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...

HONDURAS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.


 

2. AN YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT A 1100 MILES

WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND FEW HUNDRED MILES

SOUTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM

ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CONCENTRATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...NO

DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST SINCE THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED

BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF NANA.


 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.


 

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER

WMO HEADER WTNT35 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.

FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 AND UNDER

AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.


 

$$


 

FORECASTER AVILA

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT



WONT41 KNHC 131516
DSAAT

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

Saturday, October 11, 2008


SISMO EN PUERTO RICO

Earthquake Details

Magnitude

6.1

Date-Time

Location

19.282°N, 64.832°W

Depth

25.8 km (16.0 miles)

Region

VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION

Distances

  • 82 km (51 miles) NW (319°) from Settlement, Anegada, British Virgin Islands
  • 95 km (59 miles) NNW (343°) from East End-Long Look, Tortola, British Virgin Islands
  • 95 km (59 miles) NNW (346°) from ROAD TOWN, British Virgin Islands
  • 104 km (65 miles) N (6°) from CHARLOTTE AMALIE, US Virgin Islands
  • 155 km (96 miles) NE (51°) from Carolina, PR
  • 161 km (100 miles) NE (53°) from San Juan, PR

Location Uncertainty

horizontal +/- 3.1 km (1.9 miles); depth +/- 22.7 km (14.1 miles)

Parameters

Nph=024, Dmin=79.2 km, Rmss=0.33 sec, Gp=238°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=1

Source

Event ID

prp0828504

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Earthquake Details Dominican Zone

Magnitude

3.1

Date-Time

Location

18.958°N, 67.847°W

Depth

111.7 km (69.4 miles)

Region

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION

Distances

  • 93 km (58 miles) NW (318°) from Rincón, PR
  • 94 km (58 miles) NW (307°) from Cabán, PR
  • 94 km (58 miles) NW (309°) from Aguadilla, PR
  • 132 km (82 miles) ENE (63°) from La Romana, La Romana, Dominican Republic
  • 198 km (123 miles) WNW (288°) from San Juan, PR

Location Uncertainty

horizontal +/- 18.2 km (11.3 miles); depth +/- 8.8 km (5.5 miles)

Parameters

Nph=006, Dmin=133.7 km, Rmss=0.28 sec, Gp=349°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=1

Source