FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 810 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR HAITI
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH AND WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF REGENERATION AT THIS TIME AND THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 16

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009

1100 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

 

...ANA STILL RACING WESTWARD WITH NO SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING...

 

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN

ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN

ISLANDS WHICH INCLUDES MONTSERRAT... ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...

ST.KITTS...NEVIS AND ANGUILLA. AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND

ST. EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36

HOURS.

 

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE

REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA

OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

 

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST OR ABOUT 710

MILES...1140 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

 

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN

TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED

DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANA WILL BE

MOVING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

 

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...

LOCATION...14.4N 51.5W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

 

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500

AM AST.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

Tropical Storm ANA (11-16 AUG)

Storm - Max Winds: 35 Category: TS
Current - Max Winds: 35 Min Pres: 1004 Category: TS

TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009

2100 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

 

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES

HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST.

EUSTATIUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36

HOURS.

 

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN

ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ANA.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF

THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

 

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 50.0W AT 15/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.

34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 15/2100Z 14.4N 50.0W 35 KT

12HR VT 16/0600Z 14.7N 52.5W 35 KT

24HR VT 16/1800Z 15.4N 56.0W 40 KT

36HR VT 17/0600Z 16.1N 59.5W 45 KT

48HR VT 17/1800Z 17.2N 63.2W 50 KT

72HR VT 18/1800Z 19.0N 70.0W 50 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 19/1800Z 21.5N 76.0W 55 KT...OVER WATER

120HR VT 20/1800Z 24.5N 82.0W 60 KT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, 200 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

 

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

 

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 885 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST

CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

 

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE

AREA AND TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE

VERDE ISLANDS ARE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH

CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

2. SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS

HISPANIOLA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A

WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION

AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT

DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF

THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

FORECASTER BEVEN

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, 800 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2009

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 840 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST

CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA

OF LOW PRESSURE AND A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE FAR EASTERN

ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM

CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AT

10 TO 15 MPH.

2. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND

WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT

DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF

THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$